摘要 : Despite Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is regarded as a high potential food security crop, its production in Ethiopia is much less than the average world potato production. Potato is sensitive to high temperature and moisture defic... 展开 Despite Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is regarded as a high potential food security crop, its production in Ethiopia is much less than the average world potato production. Potato is sensitive to high temperature and moisture deficits. For this reason, potato production is said to be vulnerable to the anticipated climate change. The objective of this study was to assess the impacts of projected future climate on potato yield taking into account baseline climate (1992- 2010) as benchmark. Potato experiment was carried out during the cropping season in 2012 at two sites (Mekelle University (MU) and Mekelle Agricultural Research Center (MARC) in Mekelle areas with the objectives of calibrating and validating AquaCrop model, which was subsequently usedfor simulating potato yield under both baseline and future climate. There were three treatments of water: Full Supplementary (FSI), Deficit Irrigation (DI) and Rainfed (RF) treatments laid out in RCBD with three replications each. Potato variety Jalene was calibrated and validated in AquaCrop model. Potato yield under future climate (2020, 2050 and 2080) with A2 and B1 CO_2emission scenarios was simulated using AquaCrop model. Simulation results showed that potato yield decrease in rainfed treatments, whereas, increased in FSI and DI treatments in Mekelle area. The application of supplementary irrigation (full and deficit irrigation) under the future climate increased potato yield by 89.3 to 107.6% and 68 to 92% at MU site, respectively as compared torainfed. Similarly, 68.4 to 92.0% and 71.6 to 94.2% yield increase due to full and deficit irrigation were observed respectively at MARC. This indicates the negative impact of climate change can be compensated by application of supplementary irrigation.The effect of different CO_2 concentrations showed that the highest yield was obtained under A2 whereas lowest yields were obtained under B1 in 2050 and 2080 at both locations. This indicates potato responds positively to elevated CO_2concentration. Theperformance evaluation resuhs indicated the model could be used for management and climate impact analysis studies. 收起