摘要 :
The papers included in this volume were presented at the Third EPRI Symposium on Electric Utility Load Forecasting held in Kansas City, Mis¬souri in March 1981. The syposium was organized to provide electric utility forecasters a...
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The papers included in this volume were presented at the Third EPRI Symposium on Electric Utility Load Forecasting held in Kansas City, Mis¬souri in March 1981. The syposium was organized to provide electric utility forecasters an opportunity to learn the current state of the art from colleagues in the industry. Proceedings of the first two symposia have been published by EPRI (EPRI EA-1035-SR and EPRI EA-1729-SR). The emphasis of all of the symposia has been on practice and application. In the Third Symposium, sessions were devoted to data problems, EPRI's efforts to enhance the flow of information on forecasting, forecasting sales, hourly load forecasting, and other topics. Nineteen papers were submitted for publication in the proceedings.
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The intent of this effort was to provide forecasters information on the performance of selected model inputs to MaxT, MinT, and Td forecasts during the cool season and to evaluate the performance of these inputs relative to the of...
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The intent of this effort was to provide forecasters information on the performance of selected model inputs to MaxT, MinT, and Td forecasts during the cool season and to evaluate the performance of these inputs relative to the official forecasts. This two month period (Dec. 2007 Jan. 2008) was characterized by alternating periods of drier, offshore flow and moist onshore flow, sometimes with precipitation. This is quite typical of the winter season in Southern California. Without a consistent, dominant pattern, bias correction would be expected to perform poorer than during times of the year with a more persistent pattern. Models evaluated included DGEX, ECMWF, GFS40, MOSGuide, NAM12, SREF, WRF (local workstation WRF model run at 4-km horizontal resolution with NAM12 boundary conditions), and their respective bias-corrected (BC) forecasts.
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Over the past 20 years, there have been many advancements in the process of weather. Specific contributions to improvements in the forecast process come from improvements in numerical model forecast guidance and the timely availab...
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Over the past 20 years, there have been many advancements in the process of weather. Specific contributions to improvements in the forecast process come from improvements in numerical model forecast guidance and the timely availability of many new observational data types. As numerical forecasts guidance improves, it has become important to document the value a human forecaster adds to the forecast process. Because of collateral duties and career requirements, United States Navy forecasters often find it difficult to become proficient at forecasting. In this study, a basic forecast process was used to identify the skill in forecasts of ceiling and visibility made by human forecasters and produced by a statistical modification to numerical model fields. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF) were collected for eight military air stations and compared to the performance of the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program (LAMP). Hit rates and critical success indices were used to identify forecast skill. Using various timelines and categorical partitions, all results showed that there were little to no statistical differences between the TAF and LAMP in 2013. Finally, a case study was examined to highlight the capability of probability forecasting as an improvement to the forecast process.
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This volume presents the design of a general multiregional econometric model of the United States, and the design of a regional electricity consumption and demand submodel. The multiregional econometric model is intended to provid...
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This volume presents the design of a general multiregional econometric model of the United States, and the design of a regional electricity consumption and demand submodel. The multiregional econometric model is intended to provide forecasts of regional population, economic activity by industrial sector, regional wages, and incomes. The electricity submodel is designed to take forecasts of such general economic indicators (together with forecasts of relative electricity and other energy costs) and to produce forecasts of electricity (kWh) consumption by customer category and forecasts of peak load. While the ultimate purpose of the present effort is regional electricity forecasting, it is clear that the multiregional econometric model which supports the electricity submodel has a great many other uses.
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EPRI's Energy Demand and Conservation Program requires an integrated regional eco¬nomic and electricity demand forecasting system to aid its RSD planning. Because this planning is inherently long-range, the forecasting system mus...
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EPRI's Energy Demand and Conservation Program requires an integrated regional eco¬nomic and electricity demand forecasting system to aid its RSD planning. Because this planning is inherently long-range, the forecasting system must be structured to generate plausible 25-year forecasts and to reflect upon the important contingencies confronting the electric power industry.
This report develops and presents a plan of research for an integrated regional economic and electricity demand forecasting system. The system encompasses not only the forecasting of electricity sales to major classes of service and the forecasting of peak demands but also forecasting of regional economic and demographic growth that will substantially determine regional demand for electricity.
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Domestic energy production and prices by fuel type, as well as imports, are pro¬jected for the 1975-2000 period. Natural gas production is expected to increase gradually to 1990 and then decline. Output of domestic petroleum liqu...
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Domestic energy production and prices by fuel type, as well as imports, are pro¬jected for the 1975-2000 period. Natural gas production is expected to increase gradually to 1990 and then decline. Output of domestic petroleum liquids, including shale oil peaks in the 1990-1995 period and then declines. Shale oil output reaches one million barrels a day by the end of the century. Coal production capability increases throughout the period, reaching 2.6 billion tons per year by the year 2000, providing markets develop for this output level. Nuclear power growth is expected to accelerate above present trends later in the century, reaching 380 gigawatts in the year 2000. At this level, nuclear power would produce as much electricity as the burning of an additional 1.3 billion tons of coal.
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The number of motor vehicles available to a household has a major impact on the211 travel behavior of the members of the household. As a result, many metropolitan 211 planning organizations have incorporated models of household ve...
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The number of motor vehicles available to a household has a major impact on the211 travel behavior of the members of the household. As a result, many metropolitan 211 planning organizations have incorporated models of household vehicle availability 211 or automobile ownership into their travel forecasting model systems. This report 211 summarizes the current state of the practice in modeling vehicle availability. In 211 the past, these new models were most frequently labeled auto ownership models, 211 but more recently the term vehicle availability, a measure of the total number of 211 motor vehicles available for use by household members (including both passenger 211 cars and trucks owned, leased, and/or provided by employers), is likely to be 211 more closely related with the level of household mobility than the more limited 211 household auto ownership measure. Secondly, data on vehicle availability is 211 collected in the decennial U.S. Census rather than auto ownership.
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A goal toward modernizing the National Weather Service (NWS) is to provideimproved forecasts and more reliable detection and prediction of severe weather and flooding through the deployment of advanced observation, information pro...
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A goal toward modernizing the National Weather Service (NWS) is to provideimproved forecasts and more reliable detection and prediction of severe weather and flooding through the deployment of advanced observation, information processing, and communication technologies. Two major components of the modernization are: (1) installment of advanced technologies, specifically AWIPS-90 (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System for the 1990's) workstations and WSR-88D (Doppler Weather Surveillance Radar, 1988) in NWS offices, and (2) implementation of new forecast responsibilities. A significant component of the modernized NWS forecasting environment will be new capabilities for hydrologic monitoring and forecasting. The DARE installation at WSFO Denver provided the first opportunity to use the AWIPS-like hydrological functions in an operational setting. This report addresses the forecasters' assessment of DARE hydrologic functions and products.
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The document presents an overview of the state-subsidized child care funding and the implementation of the standard reimbursement rate system. Further, the child care program cost data are analyzed to determine (1) whether child c...
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The document presents an overview of the state-subsidized child care funding and the implementation of the standard reimbursement rate system. Further, the child care program cost data are analyzed to determine (1) whether child care programs which are subject to collective bargaining agreements have higher costs than other programs and (2) whether urban child care programs are more costly than rural programs. While evidence indicates that child care centers covered by collective bargaining agreements and centers located in urban areas have somewhat higher costs, on average, than their nonunionized or rural counterparts, differences in the estimated costs per child in unionized versus nonunionized and urban versus rural centers were not statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level. Moreover, a statistical analysis of the factors influencing costs per child indicates that only 25 percent of the cost variation among centers can be explained by five factors: (1) presence/absence of collective bargaining; (2) urban/rural location; (3) percentage of school-aged children enrolled; (4) percentage of infants enrolled; and (5) size of program.
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The accuracy of centrally produced prognoses has improved throughout the past 20 years; however, several studies have shown negligible improvement in weather forecasting. Available data, more than 100 journal articles, were review...
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The accuracy of centrally produced prognoses has improved throughout the past 20 years; however, several studies have shown negligible improvement in weather forecasting. Available data, more than 100 journal articles, were reviewed to independently evaluate weather forecasting improvement. Overall forecasting skill improved for most weather elements; however, improvement was not obtained by all. This led to a review of other factors (education, experience, interest, and procedures) that might be important in determining forecasting skill. After basic education and experience have been achieved (2-3 months), the main factor contributing to forecasting skill was found to be forecaster motivation. The AWS emphasis on accurate weather forecasting apparently has been effective, and should be continued.
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