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In this short paper, we reflect on the recent accumulation of scenarios that have been developed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Will they be of use to worried individuals and organizations? Or, are they artifacts of the ver...
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In this short paper, we reflect on the recent accumulation of scenarios that have been developed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Will they be of use to worried individuals and organizations? Or, are they artifacts of the very recent past? We conclude that these quickly-produced scenarios are not embedded in the realities of affected communities and that the scenario development process should be enhanced to either involve power-holding stakeholders or, more straightforwardly, to activate localconsideration of how the affected community might/might not wish to react to localized dilemmas. Both enhancements will provide action-orientated insights, beyond that of simply appreciating possible global/regional futures.
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Scenario development is a core component of foresight practitioners' and long-term planners' work. Practices play a critical role in shaping and reifying taken-for-granted structures and ideas, and as such deserve attention. In th...
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Scenario development is a core component of foresight practitioners' and long-term planners' work. Practices play a critical role in shaping and reifying taken-for-granted structures and ideas, and as such deserve attention. In this paper, we conceptualize scenario building as a practice of valuation. Doing so calls attention to constructive elements and highlights the importance of studying the practice and the field, not only to derive best practices, but to understand how they work and to what potential consequences. We illustrate these ideas with a scenario development consulting project for an international infrastructure company in which we alter the method in three main places: scanning, interim scenario work and scenario development. We demonstrate how conscious attention to the practice can drive subtle shifts in practice and how a 'valuation lens' encourages reflexivity about the use of practices.
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Scenario planning is a popular approach for addressing uncertainty in strategic decision making. An open and adaptable approach from its inception, scenario planning has developed into separate schools and is now used across a wid...
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Scenario planning is a popular approach for addressing uncertainty in strategic decision making. An open and adaptable approach from its inception, scenario planning has developed into separate schools and is now used across a wide range of research fields and practical settings. Reviews point to three challenges that limit the spread and the usefulness of scenario planning: conceptual confusion, methodological chaos, and scarcity of evidence on its effectiveness. This review of reviews brings together recent insights offered by the literature that suggest that these challenges have been partly met. A recent proposal for a synthesized definition of what a scenario is turns out to capture novel definitions quite well. The overarching term scenario planning covers a confusing diversity of methods and techniques. Nevertheless, within each of the separate schools the range of methodological choices is more restricted and arguments for choosing between options are clearer. Finally, while there is indeed a scarcity of research into effectiveness of scenario planning, on the level of specific techniques there is evidence of impact. This paper contributes to the literature on scenario analysis. For practitioners this paper provides more clarity on how to implement scenario planning, in terms of available process designs, how to choose between them and which techniques can help in implementation and how to measure effectiveness.
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This article explores the arts of crafting and delivering scenarios. Scenario literature is quite clear about the general scenario development process, but little guidance is offered when it comes to actually sitting down and writ...
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This article explores the arts of crafting and delivering scenarios. Scenario literature is quite clear about the general scenario development process, but little guidance is offered when it comes to actually sitting down and writing scenario narratives. In addition, even less guidance is available for those learning how to deliver scenarios to an audience. In other words, writing and delivering scenarios are two key practical activities, for which there is little assistance to the novice. The goal of this article was to review any available published literature on these two topics, and add to it our expertise in hopes of providing the novice scenario facilitator with some detailed information about how to accomplish these two critical pieces of scenario planning. Implications for human resource development research, theory, and practice are described and outlined, as well as implications for much needed additional research.
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A method of generating scenarios using differential sce-naro information is presented. Behaviors of normal scenarios of similar purpose are quite similar each other, while actors and data in scenarios are different among these sce...
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A method of generating scenarios using differential sce-naro information is presented. Behaviors of normal scenarios of similar purpose are quite similar each other, while actors and data in scenarios are different among these scenarios. We derive the differential information between them and apply the differential information to generate new alternative/exceptional scenarios. Our method will be illustrated with examples. This paper describes (1) a language for describing scenarios based on a simple case grammar of actions, (2) introduction of the differential scenario, and (3) method and examples of scenario generation using the differential scenario.
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This paper presents an axiomatic foundation for developing firm-specific scenarios in the tradition of the Intuitive Logics School (ILS), a structured scenario creation process built on that foundation, and its application to a ca...
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This paper presents an axiomatic foundation for developing firm-specific scenarios in the tradition of the Intuitive Logics School (ILS), a structured scenario creation process built on that foundation, and its application to a case. The ILS outlines a high-level scenario-development process. but without a theoretical basis or prescriptions for executing different process steps. The lack of theoretical grounding has led to a proliferation of methods for developing scenarios, without any basis for comparing them. We fill this gap in the literature by articulating a set of axioms characterizing the nature of human knowledge about the business environment and scenarios as depictions of that environment. Using this theoretical foundation, we devise a structured process for developing scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate this process by applying it to develop four scenarios for a firm in the U.S. healthcare sector.
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Scenario planning is one of the tools consistently reported as being used by executives to support their business development. A scenario planning project typically consists of three phases - preparation, development and use. This...
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Scenario planning is one of the tools consistently reported as being used by executives to support their business development. A scenario planning project typically consists of three phases - preparation, development and use. This paper focuses on the third phase, where the scenarios that have been developed are put to their intended use in the context of developing strategy. Significant problems have been experienced as scenario projects move into this critical phase, perhaps due to a failure to link scenario development with strategy creation and execution efforts. These issues are explored via a case study of a large UK organisation operating in the transport sector, where a scenario-based strategy development exercise was used to support the leadership development of senior managers. We propose that a scenario orientation phase is a valuable missing link in many scenario projects, which can establish a bridge between scenario development and scenario use. Scenario orientation is a process of familiarisation with the scenarios that involves understanding their nature in some detail. This can be a crucial step, particularly if there is a significant time lapse between scenario development and scenario use, or if the people using the scenarios were not involved in their development. Without a good orientation to the scenarios, participants in a scenario planning exercise may be poor at the subsequent activities that require their explicit use.
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Manufacturing based corporations often find themselves confronted with complexities of increased pressures to innovate in order to ensure their comparative market positions. In order to react to various exogenous changes corporati...
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Manufacturing based corporations often find themselves confronted with complexities of increased pressures to innovate in order to ensure their comparative market positions. In order to react to various exogenous changes corporations need to develop strategies that match their manufacturing resources as well as products with the markets requirements. Product scenarios represent a holistic approach for managing innovation processes and technologies efficiently. The analysis through evolutionary algorithms for compatibility between and amongst the product structure segments provides the necessary information about their suitability. The resulting scenarios, roadmaps and regular monitoring processes are prerequisite for the managerial decision making process and the implementation of product and technology strategies.
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This study examines the effects of scenario planning on non-financial performance of business organisations in the hospitality industry. This has the capacity to promote the understanding of regional and global tourism environment...
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This study examines the effects of scenario planning on non-financial performance of business organisations in the hospitality industry. This has the capacity to promote the understanding of regional and global tourism environment through additional alternative methods. Several studies on organisational performance have deployed the conventional planning and strategies to determine the best alternative that could accelerate business performance and sustain its environment. In order to determine the cause and effect relationship between the two variables, the study applies the VB-SEM using Smart-PLS to 82 samples. Evidence from the study reveals that scenario planning has a direct positive effect on non-financial performance of business organisations in the hospitality industry. Thus, the study emphasises that scenario planning is fundamental and practical strategic tools that could be deployed to accelerate non-financial performance.
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In this study,the future simulated climatic data (temperature and rainfall) for the 21(st) century were downscaled using the regional climate model, viz., PRECIS model (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) for different...
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In this study,the future simulated climatic data (temperature and rainfall) for the 21(st) century were downscaled using the regional climate model, viz., PRECIS model (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) for different agro-climatic zones, i.e., Zone II (Ballowal Saunlchri), Zone BI (Ludhiana, Amritsar, Patiala and Jalandhar) and Zone V (Bathinda) of Punjab. The corrected simulated data were then analyzed on the annual and seasonal basis to quantify the changes in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall. The study showed that the maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall by the end of 21(st) century are likely to increase by 2.0 to 2.2 degrees C, 3.3 to 5.4 degrees C and 33 to 66% respectively in agro-climatic zone II; by 0.4 to 5.8 degrees C, 2.5 to 7.4 degrees C and 3 to 62% respectively in agro-climatic zone III and by 0.5 to 4.0 degrees C, 4.7 to 7.7 degrees C and 58 to 69% respectively in agro-climatic zone V at different locations of Punjab state under various scenarios of climate change. The trend analysis of these parameters revealed there is positive linear increasing trend under different scenarios in the Punjab state.
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