摘要 :
In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. I...
展开
In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.
收起
摘要 :
Understanding the culture of decisions in an organizational context is imperative for the successful design and delivery of decision support systems. The cultural paradigm is especially important in the context of strategic decisi...
展开
Understanding the culture of decisions in an organizational context is imperative for the successful design and delivery of decision support systems. The cultural paradigm is especially important in the context of strategic decisions. This paper develops a framework for emphasizing the cultural distinctions around decision processes that semantically articulates those distinctions through four culturally-embedded decision modes: making a decision, taking a decision, baking a decision, and faking a decision. The paper then articulates the multidimensionality of decisions around the types of actors, the reach and range of the decision, and the decision's central metaphor. Using those dimensions, the paper shows the implications of those four decision modes for the design and delivery of decision support systems. This is illustrated by an example of an enterprise using DSS/EISfor strategic decision making. The paper concludes with the observation that the critical leverage points for the successful design and delivery ofDSS may be different depending on the dominant decision culture.
收起
摘要 :
Although agile software development is often associated with improved decision making, existing studies tend to focus on narrow aspects of decision making in such environments. There is a lack of clarity on how teams make and eval...
展开
Although agile software development is often associated with improved decision making, existing studies tend to focus on narrow aspects of decision making in such environments. There is a lack of clarity on how teams make and evaluate a myriad of decisions from software feature inception to product delivery and refinement. Indeed there is relatively little known about a) the decision characteristics related to agile values, and b) the challenges they present for decision making on agile teams. We present an in-depth exploratory case study based on a pluralistic approach comprising semi-structured interviews, focus groups, team meeting observations, and document analysis. The study identifies failings of decision making in an agile setting. Explicitly considering the decision process, information intelligence used in decision making, and decision quality, the key contribution of this paper is the development of an over-arching framework of agile decision making, which identifies particular decision characteristics across 4 key agile values and the related challenges for agile team decision making. It provides a framework for researchers and practitioners to evaluate the decision challenges of an agile software development team and to improve decision quality.
收起
摘要 :
With continuous advances in medicine, patients are faced with several medical or surgical treatment options for their health conditions. Decision aids may be useful in helping patients navigate these options and choose based on th...
展开
With continuous advances in medicine, patients are faced with several medical or surgical treatment options for their health conditions. Decision aids may be useful in helping patients navigate these options and choose based on their goals and values. We reviewed the literature to identify decision aids and better understand the effect on patient decision-making. We identified 107 decision aids designed to help patients make decisions between medical treatment or screening options; 39 decision aids were used to help patients choose between a medical and surgical treatment, and five were identified that aided patients in deciding between a major open surgical procedure and a less invasive option. Many of the decision aids were used to help patients decide between prostate, colorectal, and breast cancer screening or treatment options. Although most decision aids were not associated with a significant effect on the actual decision made, they were largely associated with increased patient knowledge, decreased decisional conflict, more accurate perception of risks, increased satisfaction with their decision, and no increase in anxiety surrounding their decision. These data identify a gap in use of decision aids in surgical decision-making and highlight the potential to help surgical patients make value-based, knowledgeable decisions regarding their treatment. (C) 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
收起
摘要 :
This article proposes on methodological and algorithmically level an information system to support group expert decision making using Analytical Network Process (ANP). Optimization of decision making complex process is currently a...
展开
This article proposes on methodological and algorithmically level an information system to support group expert decision making using Analytical Network Process (ANP). Optimization of decision making complex process is currently a significant issue in many real-life industrial, service or public sector processes. Multi-criterial decisions are at present usually made by experts individually or in committees by voting. The methodology for synthesis of decisions from multiple decision makers is universal and can be applied to a wide range of practical applications including not only industrial or business applications, but also public sector or political applications. The main contribution of this paper is the novel approach to group decision synthesis and its implementation as a web application that allows large and decentralized teams to cooperate on the same task. Individual members of teams are ranked and their weight in the synthetized decision is based on other team member‘s opinion on their proficiency in a particular matter. Pairwise comparisons provided by the decision support system are easy to grasp, because they are using fuzzy linguistic (Zadeh, 1965) variables instead of sharp values.
收起
摘要 :
Grounded in part the previous literature on household decision making and in part in the literature on tourism decision making, this paper tries to add to the literature by surveying Turkish academics with respect to spousal purch...
展开
Grounded in part the previous literature on household decision making and in part in the literature on tourism decision making, this paper tries to add to the literature by surveying Turkish academics with respect to spousal purchase decisions. In particular, the study assesses the decision tactics used for several consumer goods including vacation and travel and the link between decision tactics and consumer satisfaction/likelihood to produce positive word of mouth. The study findings confirm that spousal opinions matter and that compromise is a commonly used tactic, regardless of their features of durability (e.g. car, furniture) or non-durability (e.g. vacation, eating out), followed by the introduction of persuasion as the next most powerful tactic. Compromise is also positively associated with the level of consumer/tourist satisfaction with the product and the intention to recommend.
收起
摘要 :
The aim of patient decisional support interventions is to promote shared decision making. Many of these interventions are comprehensive of information and guidance. In this pilot study, we evaluate the effects of a decision-making...
展开
The aim of patient decisional support interventions is to promote shared decision making. Many of these interventions are comprehensive of information and guidance. In this pilot study, we evaluate the effects of a decision-making support (decision counseling (DeCo)) on decision making, decisional conflict, and anxiety in cancer patients facing with values-based decisions on fertility and procreation or genetic testing and risk reduction options in oncology.
收起
摘要 :
In October 2010, the UK Secretary of State for Defence announced a process to transform defence to meet the challenges of the future. This process set out a series of complex decisions, including the future location for defence te...
展开
In October 2010, the UK Secretary of State for Defence announced a process to transform defence to meet the challenges of the future. This process set out a series of complex decisions, including the future location for defence technical, training. Five months after the announcement, the Defence Technical Training Change Programme (DTTCP) team contacted Catalyze to request support for the DTTCP decision-making process. The team recognised that this would be an important and highly sensitive process, and would need to deliver efficiencies while improving the overall value delivered by defence technical training. Catalyze used decision conferencing and multicriteria decision analysis to help the DTTCP team and stakeholders understand the challenges and reach agreement on a solution. In July 2011, the Secretary of State for Defence announced the recommended location and the migration plan for the three branches of military service to consolidate specific technical training services into a single site.
收起
摘要 :
Nine studies investigate when and why people may paradoxically prefer bad news-for example, hoping for an objectively worse injury or a higher-risk diagnosis over explicitly better alternatives. Using a combination of field survey...
展开
Nine studies investigate when and why people may paradoxically prefer bad news-for example, hoping for an objectively worse injury or a higher-risk diagnosis over explicitly better alternatives. Using a combination of field surveys and randomized experiments, the research demonstrates that people may hope for relatively worse (vs. better) news in an effort to preemptively avoid subjectively difficult decisions (studies 1 and 2). This is because when worse news avoids a choice (study 3A)-for example, by "forcing one's hand" or creating one dominant option that circumvents a fraught decision (study 3B)-it can relieve the decisionmaker's experience of personal responsibility (study 3C). However, because not all decisions warrant avoidance, not all decisions will elicit a preference for worse news; fewer people hope for worse news when facing subjectively easier (vs. harder) choices (studies 4A and B). Finally, this preference for worse news is not without consequence and may create perverse incentives for decision-makers, such as the tendency to forgo opportunities for improvement (studies 5A and B). The work contributes to the literature on decision avoidance and elucidates another strategy people use to circumvent difficult decisions: a propensity to hope for the worst.
收起
摘要 :
How do teams make joint decisions under risk when some team members learn about a prospect from description and others learn from experience? In a series of experiments, we find that two-person teams composed of one participant wh...
展开
How do teams make joint decisions under risk when some team members learn about a prospect from description and others learn from experience? In a series of experiments, we find that two-person teams composed of one participant who learns from description and a second participant who learns from experience arrive at shared decisions via mutual concessions. In doing so, they attenuate individual biases, such as the overweighting and underweighting of the probability of rare events. The social interaction thus leads dyads to make shared decisions that follow normative standards more closely than the decisions made by individual decision makers. Finally, in processing experiential information, dyads appear to be sensitive to the reliability of the experience: the more reliable the experiential information, the larger its influence on the dyad's decision.
收起
原文获取