摘要 :
Empirical evidence on the effect of defense spending on US output is at best mixed. Against this backdrop, this paper assesses the impact of a positive defense spending shock on the growth rate of real GNP using a Factor Augmented...
展开
Empirical evidence on the effect of defense spending on US output is at best mixed. Against this backdrop, this paper assesses the impact of a positive defense spending shock on the growth rate of real GNP using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model estimated with 116 variables spanning the quarterly period of 1976:01 to 2005:02. Overall, the results show that a positive shock to the growth rate of the real defense spending translates to a positive short-run effect on the growth rate of real GNP lasting up to ten quarters, but the effect is significant only for two quarters. Beyond the tenth quarter, the effect becomes negative and shows signs of slow reversal at around the 17th quarter. Our results tend to indicate that the mixed empirical evidence, based on small-scale Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction (VEC) models, could be a result of a small information set not capturing the true theoretical relationships between the two variables of interest.
收起
摘要 :
We use a Factor Augmented VAR model to estimate the dynamic responses of interest rates in emerging market economies to the 'world' interest rate, which we extract from a dynamic factor model of yields in industrialized countries....
展开
We use a Factor Augmented VAR model to estimate the dynamic responses of interest rates in emerging market economies to the 'world' interest rate, which we extract from a dynamic factor model of yields in industrialized countries. Our results provide evidence that many emerging market yields respond to world rate shocks, at least gradually, which is broadly consistent with capital market integration. Our findings also suggest that the world rate captures information about emerging market yields
收起
摘要 :
This paper explores the price rigidity in China using 259 monthly domestic and foreign macroeconomic time series. A factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model expanded with global components is employed. Three findings a...
展开
This paper explores the price rigidity in China using 259 monthly domestic and foreign macroeconomic time series. A factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model expanded with global components is employed. Three findings are obtained. First, the model shows that common components at home and abroad are the main driving force of price volatility; for price persistence, however, it is the global components that play a major role. Second, there is no clear evidence to show that the price stickiness in China is subject to urban-rural disparities. Last, we observe a relatively active price volatility and high persistence after the 2008 financial crisis, in which domestic components have increasingly significant impacts.
收起
摘要 :
We provide evidence that institutional improvements lead to lower levels of financial dollarization through previously unidentified channels. These indirect channels operate in addition to the direct impact identified in the liter...
展开
We provide evidence that institutional improvements lead to lower levels of financial dollarization through previously unidentified channels. These indirect channels operate in addition to the direct impact identified in the literature and further illustrate the importance of institutions for the extent of banking dollarization.
收起
摘要 :
Using the informational sufficiency procedure from Forni and Gambetti (2014) along with data from McCracken and Ng (2014), we update the results of Lee (1992) and find that his vector autoregression (VAR) is informationally defici...
展开
Using the informational sufficiency procedure from Forni and Gambetti (2014) along with data from McCracken and Ng (2014), we update the results of Lee (1992) and find that his vector autoregression (VAR) is informationally deficient. To correct this problem, we estimate a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) and analyze the differences once informational deficiency is corrected with an emphasis on the relationship between real stock returns and inflation. In particular, we examine Modigliani and Cohn's (1979) inflation illusion hypothesis, Fama's (1983) proxy hypothesis, and the “anticipated policy hypothesis.”.
收起
摘要 :
This paper evaluates the impact of Brexit-related uncertainty on the economies of the UK, EU, and the US. We propose a measure of Brexit uncertainty that has not been employed before in the literature. We first construct a binary ...
展开
This paper evaluates the impact of Brexit-related uncertainty on the economies of the UK, EU, and the US. We propose a measure of Brexit uncertainty that has not been employed before in the literature. We first construct a binary variable by selecting Brexit-related events. We subsequently employ the Qual VAR model of Dueker [2005. "Dynamic Forecasts of Qualitative Variables: A Qual VAR Model of US Recessions." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 23: 96-104] to transform this variable to a continuous latent variable that captures uncertainty on important economic and financial variables. Next, this latent variable enters a structural Factor-Augmented Vector AutoRegression model combined with 452 macro and financial variables for the sample countries. Overall, our results indicate that the prolonged period of uncertainty, had a positive effect on the economies of major EU countries and negative effects for the UK economy. Additionally, the UK is the most important net sender of uncertainty spillovers in the EU, while Germany and France are among the most important net receivers of uncertainty shocks.
收起
摘要 :
Purpose - This paper investigates the impact of a monetary policy shock on the production of a sample of 312 industries in manufacturing, mining and utilities in the United States using a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FA...
展开
Purpose - This paper investigates the impact of a monetary policy shock on the production of a sample of 312 industries in manufacturing, mining and utilities in the United States using a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model. Design/methodology/approach - The authors use a FAVAR model that builds on Bernanke et al (2005) and Boivin et al (2009). The main assumption in this model is that the dynamics of a large set of macro variables are captured by some observed and unobserved common factors. The unobserved factors are extracted from a large set of macroeconomic data. The key advantage of using this model is that it allows extracting the impulse responses of a wide range of macroeconomic variables to structural shocks in the federal funds rate. Findings - The results indicate that industries exhibit differential responses to an unanticipated monetary policy tightening. In general, manufacturing industries appear to be more sensitive compared to mining, and utility industries and durable manufacturing industries are found to be more sensitive than those within nondurable and other manufacturing industries to a monetary policy shock. While all industries respond to the policy shock, most of the responses are reversed between 12 and 22 months. Research limitations/implications - The implication of our results is that monetary policy can be used to impact most US industries for four years and beyond. The existence of disparate responses across industries underscores the difficulty of implementing a monetary policy that will generate the same impact across industries. As the effects of the policy are distinct, policymakers may want to attend to the unique impacts and implement industry-specific policy. Practical implications - The study is important in the context of the current challenges in the US economy caused by the spread of coronavirus. For example, to tackle the current pandemic, the researchers are trying to come up with cures for COVID-19. A considerable response of the chemical industry that provides materials to pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing to the monetary policy shock implies that an expansionary monetary policy may facilitate an invention and adequate supply of the cure later on. The same policy may not effectively stimulate production in apparel or leather product industries that are being hard hit by the pandemic Originality/value - The study contributes to the literature in broadly two aspects. First, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that investigates the impact of a monetary policy shock on a sample of 312 industries in manufacturing, mining and utilities in the US. Second, to identify structural shocks and investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on economic activity, the authors diverge from the literature's traditional approach, i.e. the vector autoregression (VAR) method and use a FAVAR method. The FAVAR provides a comprehensive description of the impact of a monetary policy innovation on different industries.
收起
摘要 :
Using factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models, this study examines the effects of the Central Bank of Russia's (CBR) monetary policy on economic indicators. The sample includes 39 monthly macroeconomic series and cov...
展开
Using factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models, this study examines the effects of the Central Bank of Russia's (CBR) monetary policy on economic indicators. The sample includes 39 monthly macroeconomic series and covers the period 2004 through 2019. The analysis revealed counter-intuitive results, with consumer prices often responding positively to a contractionary monetary policy shock, and vice versa; this is related to the impossible trinity. The ruble exchange devaluation was accompanied by price increases through an import price pass-through, so the CBR chose exchange stability and free capital flows out of the impossible trinity, temporarily subordinating monetary policy independence. Such independence was limited, possibly due to Russia's high dependence on energy exports and the link between energy prices and the exchange rate. The findings indicate no direct evidence of an effect of monetary policy tightening on the decrease in consumer prices; rather, the attenuation of ruble depreciation may have helped to stabilize prices, even after the CBR adopted inflation targeting.
收起
摘要 :
This article aims to determine what drives the price of Bitcoin. To achieve this aim, a large set of data is analysed using VEC models augmented by factors representing unobservable economic forces. They have been obtained by mean...
展开
This article aims to determine what drives the price of Bitcoin. To achieve this aim, a large set of data is analysed using VEC models augmented by factors representing unobservable economic forces. They have been obtained by means of principal component analysis. This method enables us to contribute to the existing literature on Bitcoin in two ways. First, we employ the dimension reduction technique to combine variables from several papers. Second, we estimate several unobservable economic concepts instead of utilizing proxy variables as is usually done. We find that the main factor driving the Bitcoin price is its popularity. Hence, our result not only confirms some previous findings but reinforces them by providing a better definition of popularity. Finally, we conclude that the Bitcoin price is not affected by supply and demand factors in the way that is natural for conventional currencies.
收起
摘要 :
We use detailed micro information at household level from the Wealth and Assets Survey to construct measures of wealth inequality from 2006 to 2018 at the monthly frequency. We investigate the dynamic relationship between monetary...
展开
We use detailed micro information at household level from the Wealth and Assets Survey to construct measures of wealth inequality from 2006 to 2018 at the monthly frequency. We investigate the dynamic relationship between monetary policy and the evolution of wealth inequality measures. Our findings suggest that expansionary monetary policy shocks lead to an increase in wealth inequality and contributed significantly to its fluctuations. This effect is heterogenous across the wealth distribution with the monetary shock affecting the median household relative to the 10th and 20th percentile by larger amount than the right tail. Our results suggest that the shock is transmitted through changes in net property and financial wealth. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
收起
原文获取