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This article suggests that there is a paradigm crisis in the sub-field of cyber deterrence. Cyber deterrence is evolving slowly and unpromisingly as a strategic tool in both theory and practice, mostly due to the ill-fitting theor...
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This article suggests that there is a paradigm crisis in the sub-field of cyber deterrence. Cyber deterrence is evolving slowly and unpromisingly as a strategic tool in both theory and practice, mostly due to the ill-fitting theoretical framework and underlining assumptions it borrows from the absolute-nuclear-deterrence context. Therefore, this article suggests replacing the accepted yet inadequate paradigm of absolute deterrence with a better-fitting restrictive-cumulative-deterrence paradigm that draws on the Israeli approach to deterrence, introducing it into the cyber domain. The article further criticizes the current discourse in the field, including some common knowledge' (mis)understandings of cyberspace and the ways it affects the possibility of deterrence.
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Protecting critical infrastructure from cyberattacks by other nations is a matter of considerable concern. Can deterrence play a role in such protection? Can lessons from nuclear deterrenceȁ4;the most elaborated and successful ve...
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Protecting critical infrastructure from cyberattacks by other nations is a matter of considerable concern. Can deterrence play a role in such protection? Can lessons from nuclear deterrenceȁ4;the most elaborated and successful version of deterrenceȁ4;be adapted to the cyber case? Currently, little overlap exists between the two, although that might change in the aftermath of an extensive, destructive cyberattack. The most effective way to protect the cyber-dependent infrastructure is a comprehensive defense (deterrence by denial), which was impractical in the nuclear regime. However, this approach presents challenges. Existing legal norms, particularly those related to controlling collateral damage, might provide some deterrence. Another option might be a new international agreement, but that would involve several difficult issues.
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Marginal deterrence concerns the incentives created by criminal penalties for offenders to refrain from committing more harmful acts. We show that when offenders act sequentially, it is often optimal for the level of the sanction,...
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Marginal deterrence concerns the incentives created by criminal penalties for offenders to refrain from committing more harmful acts. We show that when offenders act sequentially, it is often optimal for the level of the sanction, not just the expected sanction, to rise with the severity of the act, even when enforcement is specific.
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Abstract This paper examines the role of experience in determining the deterrent effect of criminal punishment. Economic models of crime typically assume potential offenders know the probability of apprehension. Thus, neither the ...
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Abstract This paper examines the role of experience in determining the deterrent effect of criminal punishment. Economic models of crime typically assume potential offenders know the probability of apprehension. Thus, neither the individual's personal experience of being caught and punished nor the observation of someone else's punishment experience affects that individual's future behavior. This paper incorporates a role for experience in determining criminal activity, distinguishing between (1) how individuals form perceptions of the probability of punishment, including how those perceptions are influenced by what they experience or observe, and (2) how those perceptions, once formed, influence their decisions about criminal activity.
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Assuming that the willingness to find a potentially innocent defendant guilty is decreasing in punishments, we derive two results: Deterrence is decreasing when punishments are too high, and deterrence maximizing punishments tend ...
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Assuming that the willingness to find a potentially innocent defendant guilty is decreasing in punishments, we derive two results: Deterrence is decreasing when punishments are too high, and deterrence maximizing punishments tend to increase in the quality of legal systems.
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In the 1980s, information systems (IS) borrowed deterrence theory (DT) from the field of criminology to explain information security behaviors (or intention). Today, DT is among the most commonly used theories in IS security resea...
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In the 1980s, information systems (IS) borrowed deterrence theory (DT) from the field of criminology to explain information security behaviors (or intention). Today, DT is among the most commonly used theories in IS security research. Our review of IS research applying DT highlights that many fundamental assumptions of DT are unrecognized and therefore unexamined. This may have resulted in misunderstandings and conceptual confusions regarding some of the basic concepts of DT. For example, some IS studies confuse general deterrence with specific deterrence or do not recognize the difference between the two. Moreover, these fundamental assumptions, when directly examined, may provide important information about the applicability of DT in certain IS security contexts. This research commentary aims to identify and discuss some of the fundamental assumptions of DT and their implications for IS research. By examining these assumptions, IS researchers can study the previously unexplored aspects of DT in different IS contexts. Further, by recognizing these assumptions, IS scholars can revise them and build new variants of DT to better account for specific characteristics of IS behaviors and contexts.
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States employ extended deterrence to shield third parties from aggression. The concept is traditionally applied to interstate relations, collective security arrangements, and strategic considerations. The protective relationship t...
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States employ extended deterrence to shield third parties from aggression. The concept is traditionally applied to interstate relations, collective security arrangements, and strategic considerations. The protective relationship that exists between a state sponsor of terrorism and its non-state militant proxy is rarely considered. This article will introduce and explore the sponsor-proxy relationship in the context of extended deterrence, and relate it to Iran's support and sponsorship of political violence, militancy, and terrorism in Europe. The article reviews the rationale states have for sponsoring terrorism, and illustrates the promises and pitfalls associated with extending deterrence to non-state militants.
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This paper explores, using panel data of traffic accidents in Japan, how formal and informal deterrence affect driving manners. I found through fixed effects and fixed effects 2SLS estimations that formal deterrents, such as polic...
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This paper explores, using panel data of traffic accidents in Japan, how formal and informal deterrence affect driving manners. I found through fixed effects and fixed effects 2SLS estimations that formal deterrents, such as police, cause drivers to drive attentively but that this effect is not inversely associated with dangerous driving. Informal deterrents, on the other hand, impede dangerous driving but do not induce drivers to drive more attentively.
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This study reassesses conflicting strategic behavior of India and Pakistan in the changed regional environment. It predominantly focuses on evaluating the two states' behavior in regard to their nuclear doctrines, strategies, forc...
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This study reassesses conflicting strategic behavior of India and Pakistan in the changed regional environment. It predominantly focuses on evaluating the two states' behavior in regard to their nuclear doctrines, strategies, force postures and, operational plans and their impact on deterrence stability/instability. It continues by examining the following questions: Why do these states behave distinctly on their strategic goals that make peace precarious and deterrence unstable? How far have the changing security dynamics and emerging doctrinal structures of these states made regional deterrence more or less stable? How can these states stabilize deterrence and secure regional peace? The paper finds that nuclear deterrence in South Asia apparently has stabilized the region but the peace was precariously maintained because the two states have distinct strategic direction and goals. India and Pakistan cannot avoid serious and unavoidable risks of nuclear war until they lay down their all-inclusive military plans, adopt budgetary constraints, institute an arms control mechanism and build a stable political relationship.
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Recent studies have shown the occurrence of plant derived pyrrolizidine alkaloids (PAs) in retail honeys and pollen loads, but little is known about how these compounds influence the fitness of foraging honey bees. In feeding expe...
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Recent studies have shown the occurrence of plant derived pyrrolizidine alkaloids (PAs) in retail honeys and pollen loads, but little is known about how these compounds influence the fitness of foraging honey bees. In feeding experiments, we tested a mix of tertiary PAs and the corresponding N-oxides from Senecio vernalis, pure monocrotaline, and 1,2-dihydromonocrotaline in 50% (w/w) sucrose solutions. The bees were analyzed chemically to correlate the observed effects to the ingested amount of PAs. PA-N-oxides were deterrent at concentrations >0.2%. 1,2-Unsaturated tertiary PAs were toxic at high concentrations. The observed PAs mortality could be linked directly to the presence of the 1,2-double bond, a well established essential feature of PA cytotoxicity. In contrast, feeding experiments with 1,2-dihydromonocrotaline revealed no toxic effects. Levels of less than 50 micro g 1,2-unsaturated tertiary PAs per individual adult bee were tolerated without negative effects. PA-N-oxides fed to bees were reduced partially to the corresponding tertiary PAs. Unlike some specialized insects, bees are not able to actively detoxify PAs through N-oxidation. To gain insight into how PAs are transmitted among bees, we tested for horizontal PA transfer (trophallaxis). Under laboratory conditions, up to 15% of an ingested PA diet was exchanged from bee to bee, disclosing a possible route for incorporation into the honey comb. In the absence of alternative nectar and pollen sources, PA-containing plants might exhibit a threat to vulnerable bee larvae, and this might affect the overall colony fitness.
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