摘要 : Current climate models have relatively high skills in predicting El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase (i.e., El Nino, neutral, and La Nina), once leaping over the spring predictability barrier. However, it is still a big chal... 展开 Current climate models have relatively high skills in predicting El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase (i.e., El Nino, neutral, and La Nina), once leaping over the spring predictability barrier. However, it is still a big challenge to realistically forecast the ENSO amplitude, for instance, whether a predicted event will be strong, moderate, or weak. Here we demonstrate that the accumulated westerly wind events (WWEs)/easterly wind surges (EWSs) and oceanic recharged/discharged states are both of importance in accurate ENSO amplitude forecasts. El Nino and La Nina events exhibit asymmetric temporal and spatial features in the atmospheric and oceanic preconditions. El Nino amplitude at the peak season is closely associated with the accumulated WWEs over the eastern equatorial Pacific from the previous December to May and the recharged state in the western equatorial Pacific during February. In contrast, the amplitude of La Nina events is sensitive to the accumulated EWSs over the equatorial western Pacific from the previous November to April and the discharged state extending from the equatorial western to central Pacific during February. Considering these asymmetric atmospheric and oceanic preconditions of El Nino and La Nina cases, a statistical model is established to accurately forecast the ENSO amplitude at its mature phase during 1982-2018, which is validated to be robust based on a 1-yr cross-validation and independent sample tests. The feasibility and the limitation of the established statistical model are also discussed by examining its practical utility. 收起