摘要 : This paper analyses the impacts of policy reforms in the EU dairy sector on milk product prices and production. It is shown that the implementation of GATT agreements leads to a 4% decrease in the milk price. Prices of skim milk p... 展开 This paper analyses the impacts of policy reforms in the EU dairy sector on milk product prices and production. It is shown that the implementation of GATT agreements leads to a 4% decrease in the milk price. Prices of skim milk powder and whole milk powder decrease more than butter and cheese prices. EU welfare increases marginally, but distributive effects are large. The increase in quotas decided by the Berlin Agreement will cause a dramatic cut in the milk price (-10% to -15% depending on how EU demand will increase in the future). Moreover, because of the constraints on subsidized exports, the implicit price of protein will decrease much more than the price of fat. Finally, if demand expands sufficiently, then compensatory payments (includingnational envelopes) will cover about 90% of the loss in producer surplus due to the milk price cut. The paper also investigates the impact of a two-tiered quota system and shows that its impacts are similar to those generated by the implementation of GATT agreements. 收起