摘要 : The late 1999 round of multilateral trade negotiations will involve the expansion of tariff rate quotas and the reduction of export subsidies in the dairy industry. A non-spatial multi-region model of the world dairy industry is u... 展开 The late 1999 round of multilateral trade negotiations will involve the expansion of tariff rate quotas and the reduction of export subsidies in the dairy industry. A non-spatial multi-region model of the world dairy industry is used to analyse thepotential impact of such reforms on the Canadian, the EU-15 and the US dairy industries in terms of demand, supply, prices and trade. The results from selected partial trade liberalization scenarios indicate that there is no scenario that provides benefits to all participants in the dairy industry. The analysis of partial trade liberalization, in terms of its growth effects, varies by country and by sector, making win-win compromises hard to reach among the participants in a country, and even more so across countries. More market-oriented though still protected regions such as the USA generally improve their competitive position in the world dairy market as border measures are removed. By contrast, the dairy sectors in regulated milk production marketssuch as Canada and the EU-15 are projected to be better off when the reform package does not compromise current policy settings, while giving some additional market access for surplus dairy production. 收起