摘要 : During the past decades, land use land cover change (LUCC) has taken place around most Chinese cities at unprecedented rates. During this process, many rural lands, such as forests and wetlands, have transformed to human settlemen... 展开 During the past decades, land use land cover change (LUCC) has taken place around most Chinese cities at unprecedented rates. During this process, many rural lands, such as forests and wetlands, have transformed to human settlements. Taking Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province, China as the case study area, this paper analyzed the long-term (from 1977 to 2007) land use land cover change, and modeled the change using a system dynamic model. In particular, land use land cover maps in 1977, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2001, and 2007 were derived from Landsat multi-spectral Scanner (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery. Through analyzing the trend of land use land cover change, three groups of driving forces, including land use management, population growth, and economic and social policies, have been identified to model LUCC in the Daqing City. Finally, future land use change scenarios were simulated under three socio-economic policies: (1) current economic growth, (2) rapid economic growth, and (3) sustainable development. Analysis of results suggests that Daqing City has expanded significantly at the cost of forests and wetlands from 1977 to 2007. Moreover, systems dynamic modeling results suggest that three identified groups of driving forces can effectively explain past land use change in the study area. Finally, simulation results indicate that (1) under current and rapid economic growth policies, built-up land in Daqing City increase significantly, while the areas of grassland and wetlands decrease remarkably, and (2) under the sustainable development policy, the conflict between population expansion and land resource shortage can be alleviated to some extent. These results provide an important decision-making reference for land use planning and sustainable development in Daqing City.Digital Object Identifier http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.11.019 收起