摘要 : In a recent article, Gorski and Novella state that prior probabilities can be so low that putting them to the test makes no sense [1]. A few decades ago the randomised controlled trial (RCT) was demanded because of the low prior p... 展开 In a recent article, Gorski and Novella state that prior probabilities can be so low that putting them to the test makes no sense [1]. A few decades ago the randomised controlled trial (RCT) was demanded because of the low prior probability of clinical methods such as homeopathy. Interestingly, the mention of prior chance and its updating using Bayes' theorem arose after a considerable number of RCTs of homeopathy were subjected to meta-analysis; this concluded that the results were not compatible with the placebo hypothesis for homeopathy [2]. Extremely low priors, based on theory, are now proposed as sufficient reason to disregard scientific evidence. 收起