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The current study sought to offer guidance for developing effective web-based mapping tools for wildfire warnings by identifying (1) the important content for facilitating individuals' decision-making, and (2) the optimal interfac...
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The current study sought to offer guidance for developing effective web-based mapping tools for wildfire warnings by identifying (1) the important content for facilitating individuals' decision-making, and (2) the optimal interface design for ensuring usability and ease of information access. A map-based warning tool was prototyped in the Australian context, followed by a usability and effectiveness evaluation through individual interviews and verbal protocol analysis to assess participants' interaction with the mapping interface and information in response to the simulated warning scenario. The results demonstrated variations in participants' approaches to wildfire warning response, revealing varied information needs. Specifically, most participants relied on their own assessment of the prospective threat, requiring specific wildfire-related information before eliciting a response. In contrast, the decision of a minority of the participants was motivated by response guidance from agencies, and accurate wildfire information was less important for their response. Imperative information for both types of residents therefore needs to be highlighted in a map-based warning tool to cater to a wide audience. Furthermore, a number of heuristics were identified for designing effective interactive functions to facilitate the control of, and access to, the various maps and textual information presented on the map-based warning interface.
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Interest in the concept of "early warning" for earthquakes is increasing rapidly. The Japanese announced their version of a public system last fall. In the United States, algorithms are being developed and tests formulated to asse...
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Interest in the concept of "early warning" for earthquakes is increasing rapidly. The Japanese announced their version of a public system last fall. In the United States, algorithms are being developed and tests formulated to assess earthquake early warning systems in order to determine their relative merits and help improve their speed and reliability. At last fall's American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting there were no fewer than 40 papers devoted to technical aspects of earthquake early warning. The simple concept of detecting a large earthquake soon enough after its origin to warn distant communities before strong shaking begins is easy to grasp. For the most part the basic scientific knowledge exists, and the technology to implement it is rapidly becoming a reality. But is the breakneck speed at which the technology is developing going to outstrip its real usefulness in a complex, multidimensional world?
Interest in the concept of "early warning" for earthquakes is increasing rapidly. The Japanese announced their version of a public system last fall. In the United States, algorithms are being developed and tests formulated to assess earthquake early warning systems in order to determine their relative merits and help improve their speed and reliability. At last fall's American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting there were no fewer than 40 papers devoted to technical aspects of earthquake early warning. The simple concept of detecting a large earthquake soon enough after its origin to warn distant communities before strong shaking begins is easy to grasp. For the most part the basic scientific knowledge exists, and the technology to implement it is rapidly becoming a reality. But is the breakneck speed at which the technology is developing going to outstrip its real usefulness in a complex, multidimensional world?
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In the past four decades, the private weather forecast sector has been developing next to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, resulting in additional weather providers. This plurality has led to a
In the past four decades, the private weather forecast sector has been developing next to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, resulting in additional weather providers. This plurality has led to a critical duplication of public weather warnings. For a specific event, different providers disseminate warnings that are more or less severe, or that are visualized differently, leading to inconsistent information that could impact perceived warning quality and response. So far, past research has not studied the influence of inconsistent information from multiple providers. This knowledge gap is addressed here. An inconsistency matrix was developed and employed to categorize the level of inconsistency across multiple warnings. The matrix provides warning pairs inconsistent in visualization, text or both. A survey experiment was conducted in Switzerland ( N ?=?1,335). The results show that half of the people who received warnings from different providers for the same event indicated that these were inconsistent. The evaluation of warning quality and intended actions in a decision scenario characterized by two severe rainfall warnings shows the negative impacts of inconsistency. For example, consistent warnings are least confusing and inconsistent visual and textual warnings are most confusing. However, there are no significant differences in the effects of inconsistent textual information compared to inconsistent visual information on warning quality and intended actions. These findings offer empirical justification to enhance co‐operation between public and private weather providers. To improve warnings, the providers should find an agreement to be consistent either in the text or in the visualization.
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Objective This research investigated whether safety labeling design guidelines, such as the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) Z535 series, contribute to better warnings. Background Studies investigating the impact of sa...
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Objective This research investigated whether safety labeling design guidelines, such as the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) Z535 series, contribute to better warnings. Background Studies investigating the impact of safety label formatting on warning effectiveness have produced mixed findings. Additionally, research has failed to find a consistent relationship between measures of predicted and actual compliance. One commonality is that all of these studies have investigated the ANSI Z535 guidelines as a binary variable rather than as an integrative system of separable features. Method We measured predicted compliance using both a within-subjects and a between-subjects design, but actual compliance using only a between-subjects design. Data were analyzed using both analysis of variance and linear/probit regressions to test the relationships between warning features recommended in the ANSI Z535 guidelines and measures of behavioral compliance. Results Predicted compliance assessed via a within-subjects design differed greatly from predicted compliance assessed via a between-subjects design. Levels of predicted and actual compliance were most similar when both measures were assessed using a between-subjects design. Consistent with previous research, location had a strong relationship with actual compliance, but surprisingly, presence of an ANSI-style orange warning header had a negative relationship with compliance. Conclusion The choice of experimental design and analytical methods can dramatically influence a study's results and conclusions drawn. This research identified several aspects of experimental design that should be considered in future research on warning effectiveness. Application Testing features recommended in the ANSI Z535 guidelines under varying conditions can contribute to the development of more effective warnings.
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Flood warning systems are now centre-stage in flood risk management strategies in Europe. This is due to advances in flood forecasting and the rapid communication of flood risk information, coupled with a growing understanding tha...
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Flood warning systems are now centre-stage in flood risk management strategies in Europe. This is due to advances in flood forecasting and the rapid communication of flood risk information, coupled with a growing understanding that communities need to find better ways of co-existing with rivers and the realization that structural flood defences are insufficient on their own to prevent flooding. However, not enough is known about the potential and actual benefits of flood warnings for avoiding property damages. This paper presents an extended approach to the estimation of potential flood damage reduction benefits of flood warnings for fluvial and tidal floods, drawing upon research completed for the European Commission's Floodsite project. Its aim is to demonstrate the potential economic benefits of coupling flood warnings to a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk management measures. Previous research in this area is critiqued, including that which suggests that flood warnings are futile, and the features, strengths and weaknesses of the extended approach are presented and discussed. Two case studies, a national-level (England and Wales) and a local-level (Grimma, southeastern Germany) assessment of flood damage-saving potential, are presented to illustrate the new approach. Although a number of data quality issues need addressing, the model outputs and estimations of potential damage savings may be used to make wise decisions about investment in flood warning systems, and to identify those areas, such as public flood risk awareness, that need attention to achieve the full scope of potential benefits in practice.
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Outdoor warning siren systems are used to warn on a variety of threats, but exactly how and when sirens are used varies widely among jurisdictions. To better understand how siren systems are used for weather warning applications, ...
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Outdoor warning siren systems are used to warn on a variety of threats, but exactly how and when sirens are used varies widely among jurisdictions. To better understand how siren systems are used for weather warning applications, an online survey developed by the authors was distributed by the International Association of Emergency Managers (IAEM) to its membership in fall 2012. More than 500 respondents answered the 31 question survey. Survey results showed a wide disparity in siren policy for warning on weather-related hazards. Among jurisdictions with outdoor warning systems, more than 90% activate sirens for tornadoes, 38% sound sirens for severe winds, and 21% for hail. Specific criteria for warning on wind and hail vary by jurisdiction. Local decision making plays a significant role when sounding the sirens; of those emergency managers (EMs) who regularly sound sirens for tornadoes, 30% may choose not to sound sirens during a National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warning. Nearly half of EMs (45.5%) may activate sirens before an NWS warning is issued. Nearly two-thirds (65.4%) of EMs have the ability to sound subsections of their siren network, and nearly the same percentage (62.7%) have multiple sound options available on at least some part of their siren network. Overall, the policy, application, and operation of outdoor warning siren systems for severe weather are complex, with local systems designed and used for warning on only the greatest threats to the immediate area. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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People often display excessive overconfidence when providing interval estimates, which biases decision-making. Research has investigated the various measures to effectively reduce overconfidence, and the use of warnings has subseq...
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People often display excessive overconfidence when providing interval estimates, which biases decision-making. Research has investigated the various measures to effectively reduce overconfidence, and the use of warnings has subsequently been considered to have a negligible reduction effect. We demonstrate with two separate experiments that the impact of warnings has to be reviewed in light of dynamic warning designs and cognitive warning process models. In experiment 1, in contrast to previous studies that only used unstructured warnings, we implement a warning incorporating some core elements of a structured warning design based on research in the fields of human factors and ergonomics. Furthermore, accounting for recent developments in the warning literature, we distinguish between static and dynamic warning design. In experiment 2, we examine the effectiveness of different elements of dynamic warnings. We show that a significantly higher reduction of overconfidence can be achieved by combining a structured warning content with a dynamic stimulus change to increase the warning's noticeability. Copyright (C) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Landslides are one of the commonly natural disasters triggered by rainfalls, earthquakes, and human activities, which cause fatalities, damage to properties, and economic losses in the world. Early warning method may predict lands...
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Landslides are one of the commonly natural disasters triggered by rainfalls, earthquakes, and human activities, which cause fatalities, damage to properties, and economic losses in the world. Early warning method may predict landslide occurrence and reduce the risk. In this paper, we propose a self-developed site-specific landslide early warning system (LEWS), which has been progressively designed and accomplished over the past decade in Southwest China. The warning model for the prediction of slope instability is focused on multiple thresholds, including deformation rate, rate increment and tangential angle related to surface displacement measurement. The debris-flow initiation is determined by critical rainfall thresholds integrated with the topographic and geological conditions at a catchment scale. The recent Xingyi rockslide, Baige debris slide and debris flows in Zoumaling catchment are selected to explain the specific process of landslide early warning in a real-time operating system. The performance of the presented warning system is evaluated by comparison with the inverse-velocity model (INV) and gradient model (SLO) in the prediction of slope failure time. The Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analysis is used to prove its feasibility and reliability in the debris-flow initiation prediction. The presented warning model and system can be applied to other regions in landslide early warning and to be useful to mitigate landslide losses and damages.
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We examine the market reaction of profit warnings (PWs) over the business cycle in the U.S. during 1995-2012. The average PW is associated with a -13.38% abnormal return during the announcement day. This is substantially higher th...
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We examine the market reaction of profit warnings (PWs) over the business cycle in the U.S. during 1995-2012. The average PW is associated with a -13.38% abnormal return during the announcement day. This is substantially higher than the abnormal return of firms who announce a negative earnings surprise without previously warning about it. We also find that the PW stock market reactions are asymmetric during the business cycle. Negative stock market reactions are greater in magnitude during expansion periods than during contraction periods. Theory suggests that this is because bad news is not expected during good times, so when it is announced, investors have a greater update to their beliefs.
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The Electronic Warfare Computer for the Aircraft Survivability Equipment will improve the ability for countermeasures by analysis about threat information. This paper suggests method that threat data integration of multiple sensor...
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The Electronic Warfare Computer for the Aircraft Survivability Equipment will improve the ability for countermeasures by analysis about threat information. This paper suggests method that threat data integration of multiple sensors(Radar Warning Receiver, Laser Warning Receiver, Missile Warning Receiver). The algorithm of threat data integration is based on detected threat sequence and azimuth information. The threat sequence information is analyzed in advance and the azimuth data is received from sensors. The suggested method is evaluated through simulation under the environment like real helicopter.
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