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Many large organizations have risk that propagates because of the dependencies between their various major organizational components. This paper addresses when cycles of dependencies exist in an organization or system of systems. ...
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Many large organizations have risk that propagates because of the dependencies between their various major organizational components. This paper addresses when cycles of dependencies exist in an organization or system of systems. In a 2016 article, Gallagher, MacKenzie, Blum and Boerman proposed determining component risk assessment by evaluating against future plans with respect to performance, cost and schedules. Their method aggregated various risk evaluations to an expected component risk assessment between zero and one for each future scenario. In 2020, Hall, Gallagher and Fenn presented a networked risk assessment framework that evaluates components' risks to assess the networked risk by components and the overall organizational expected risk. They included describing a maximum likelihood method to estimate dependencies between components based on expert assessments. They also proposed three risk propagation approaches across the networked components to produce networked risk assessments: (1) the linear program approach, which transfers risk based only on the worst support; (2) the reliability approach, which uses multiplicative probabilities; and (3) the Leontief approach, which adds all direct and indirect contributing risks. Here, we computationally investigate the sensitivities of those three risk propagation models and conclude the reliability formulation is the most robust to variance in model inputs. We apply this networked risk framework to evaluate the United States Air Force in future combat scenarios.
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Poly- and per fluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) are man-made chemicals that are used in many industrial applications to improve performance and durability of products. The CF bond is one of the strongest bonds in organic chemist...
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Poly- and per fluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) are man-made chemicals that are used in many industrial applications to improve performance and durability of products. The CF bond is one of the strongest bonds in organic chemistry which makes PFAS highly persistent in the environment. Therefore, PFAS levels have increased in different environmental compartments (air, water, soil) at global scale over time since the early 1950s. Terminology used for describing potential risks and those used in risk communication can be confusing as different disciplines use risk concepts and vocabulary that are different from those used for exposure and/or health risk assessment for hazardous materials. For example, terms such as emergent risk, emerging risk, risk intensification, risk awareness, risk perception, risk attenuation, risk amplification, and risk absorption are often misused or misinterpreted, especially in describing and communicating risks associated with PFAS in the environment or PFAS exposure. In addition, appropriate risk terms associated with psychological, social, institutional, and cultural elements are often misused. Here, appropriate risk terminology for describing and quantifying risks and health risks in reference to PFAS exposure and PFAS related risk propagation in spatial and temporal scales are explained with examples.
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There has been a substantial change in the operational risks faced by financial services firms over the last fifteen years. Risks such as conduct, cyber and third party have risen in importance and now dominate boardroom agendas. ...
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There has been a substantial change in the operational risks faced by financial services firms over the last fifteen years. Risks such as conduct, cyber and third party have risen in importance and now dominate boardroom agendas. How organizations think about this expanding portfolio of threats and manage them in a consistent way is underpinned by their risk taxonomy. This changing risk profile, combined with a recent shift of focus away from capital measurement toward risk management, means that many organizations are actively revising their operational risk taxonomies. In doing so, they are deviating from Basel Committee on Banking Supervision event types, but without a common standard for which to aim. In this paper, we take a data-driven approach and combine the individual active taxonomies of sixty large financial institutions (fifty-eight for construction and two for validation) to create a coherent new reference taxonomy: the ORX reference taxonomy for operational and nonfinancial risk. This combines both the theoretical and the practical wisdom of the crowd. The resultant taxonomy is a two-layered hierarchy of risks, with sixteen risks at level 1 and sixty-one risks at level 2. As part of this work, we look at some of the contemporary concerns that have shaped how institutions think about their risks. Constructing a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive taxonomy driven by data is not without its challenges, and the careful narrowing of scope and separation of risks, in partnership with industry experts, was sometimes needed. The Basel event types provide a central point of comparison, as they are universally adopted, have longevity and provide a basis for the ways in which institutions share data and provide insights into operational risks. The desired contribution of this ORX initiative was to create a common point of reference and thereby solid ground for industry discussion about developing operational risk taxonomies with the aim of laying the foundations that will allow consistent industry sharing of insights and data over the coming years.
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This article is the fourth and final of an interview series with a selection of significant contributors to the social science of risk. It provides quasi-verbatim interviews with Tom Horlick-Jones, Paul Slovic and Andy Alaszewski....
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This article is the fourth and final of an interview series with a selection of significant contributors to the social science of risk. It provides quasi-verbatim interviews with Tom Horlick-Jones, Paul Slovic and Andy Alaszewski. Tom Horlick-Jones contributed to Chapter 6 of the Royal Society Risk monograph, on risk management. He offers further insights into the debates which underlay its production to those given by Nick Pidgeon in the first article of this series. Paul Slovic provides a North American perspective on risk social science. Andy Alaszewski, in the last of the eight interviews, discusses his views about risk in relation to the evolution of his journal, Health, Risk & Society.
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Organisational risk propensity directly affects the decision-making behaviour of employees, with linked impacts on the ongoing prosperity of the organisation. The literature on an individual's risk behaviour is extensive. However,...
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Organisational risk propensity directly affects the decision-making behaviour of employees, with linked impacts on the ongoing prosperity of the organisation. The literature on an individual's risk behaviour is extensive. However, few studies investigate the risk propensity of an organisation. This study uses primary data from interviews within a major change programme in a FTSE100 pharmaceutical organisation to explore the characteristics of organisational risk propensity. The data are analysed using open coding procedures from Grounded Theory in order to fragment the category of 'organisational risk propensity' into some constituent properties and dimensions. An integrative framework is then inductively derived which provides insights into risk propensity within the case context; together with some cues for implementing changes to the organisation's risk propensity if so desired. The output from this research also provides a useful base from which to develop a survey instrument for assessing organisational risk propensity.
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This paper explores the role of value judgements in personal risk management through an in-depth case study involving a woman's treatment for anal cancer. Julia (pseudonym) agreed to have her pre-treatment medical consultation rec...
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This paper explores the role of value judgements in personal risk management through an in-depth case study involving a woman's treatment for anal cancer. Julia (pseudonym) agreed to have her pre-treatment medical consultation recorded, and participated in two subsequent interviews. Delving into a single case makes it possible to understand why an individual makes decisions in relation to the overall nexus of risks and benefits which they identify even though their choices may seem irrational to others. According to the colorectal nurse research interviewer, Julia 'risked exploding' as a result of 'absconding' (Julia's term) from hospital in order to have sex shortly after undergoing surgery. Although not to be interpreted literally, the above phrase encapsulates Julia's risk blindness from a clinical perspective. The article will address the question of how one person came to put herself at unnecessary risk. The question will be considered in relation to non-communication about the interconnected web of issues which troubled Julia, including cosmology, mortality, being left with an unclean, leaky body, loss of economic viability and harm to family members and to close relationships. This analytical framework complements the more usual one in which attitudes towards a particular risk object are compared across cases. The article makes a contribution, within the limits of a single case study, to advancing knowledge about the neglected topic of individual risk consciousness. It will be argued that, in the absence of such analysis, personal decision-making about risks cannot be fully understood, appropriate advice given or sensitive policies developed.
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Many large and highly complex engineering projects present enormous technical and financial risks to organizations. This is especially true in the defence industry where budgets can potentially run into billions and the project li...
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Many large and highly complex engineering projects present enormous technical and financial risks to organizations. This is especially true in the defence industry where budgets can potentially run into billions and the project lifecycle may extend over many years. In frequent cases, such projects are too much for a single organization to undertake. One option that is becoming ubiquitous across contemporary defence projects is to spread the risk by forming an alliance between several organizations. Unfortunately, forming an alliance between potentially competing organizations brings its own set of challenges and risks. The operating conditions of the business environment are characterized by frequent changes in products, services, processes, organizations, markets, supply and distribution networks. The partners need to work together as an entity to achieve a goal but the relationships within the alliance are often disrupted by the established practices, culture and motivation of the individual companies. This paper starts by examining how risks can essentially multiply when an alliance is formed and what potential impacts these risks have on project success. A novel 3PE method for modeling the structure of an alliance with the three elements being product, people, process, and their interactions is proposed within an alliance environment. This methodology is then used to calculate the increase in interactions between the 3Ps with the introduction of more organizations to the alliance. By examining each of the elements and their interactions, risks are identified, and the key drivers are exposed. Finally, a case study is presented that illustrates how the architectural model can be used to estimate the probability of failure of the alliance.
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This paper investigates the effects of earthquake risk perceptions and a number of socioeconomic variables on risk mitigation. The effects of perceived risk components (probability and severity) and perceived risk characteristics ...
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This paper investigates the effects of earthquake risk perceptions and a number of socioeconomic variables on risk mitigation. The effects of perceived risk components (probability and severity) and perceived risk characteristics (dread, knowledge, controllability, and responsibility) are investigated jointly in a single model, together with degree of risk aversion and socioeconomic factors (income, gender, age, education, and number of children). Analyses are conducted separately in order to explain variability in five different forms of mitigation behaviors: (1) purchasing of compulsory earthquake insurance, (2) past mitigation behaviors, (3) monetary value of past mitigation behaviors, (4) intentions for future mitigation behaviors, and (5) monetary value of intended future mitigation behaviors. Data are obtained from homeowners in Istanbul, where a major earthquake is expected within 30 years. The results provide evidence that all three variable sets (risk components, risk characteristics, and socioeconomic variables) may act as significant determinants of mitigation and that the driving factors for mitigation may differ across forms of mitigation behaviors investigated. The study (1) provides partial explanation for the equivocal findings in prior research regarding the relationship between risk perceptions and mitigation behaviors, and (2) offers guidelines for policy-makers in motivating communal earthquake risk mitigation.
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A comprehensive overview of methods to quantify and limit risks arising from different sources is still missing in literature. Therefore, a study of risk literature was carried out by the authors. This article summarises about 25 ...
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A comprehensive overview of methods to quantify and limit risks arising from different sources is still missing in literature. Therefore, a study of risk literature was carried out by the authors. This article summarises about 25 quantitative risk measures. A risk measure is defined as a mathematical function of the probability of an event and the consequences of that event. The article focuses mainly on risk measures for loss of life (individual and societal risk) and economic risk, concentrating on risk measurement experiences in The Netherlands. Other types of consequences and some international practices are also considered. For every risk measure the most important characteristics are given: the mathematical formulation, the field of application and the standard set in this field. Some of the measures have been used in a case study to calculate the flood risks for an area in The Netherlands.
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Risk aggregation considering inter-risk dependence has always been a challenge to both researchers and practitioners. The objective of this study is to formulate ways of aggregation of bank risks and comprehensively compare simple...
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Risk aggregation considering inter-risk dependence has always been a challenge to both researchers and practitioners. The objective of this study is to formulate ways of aggregation of bank risks and comprehensively compare simple summation, variance-covariance and copula approach. Firstly, the three popular approaches are adopted to aggregate credit risk, market risk and operational risk of banks based on Austrian banking data. Then, two comparisons are mainly made. Total risks aggregated by different approaches are compared to analyze their relative magnitudes. Diversification benefits of different approaches are further compared to investigate their tail dependence structures. Based on the empirical analysis, some facts are verified and some interesting findings are uncovered, leading to the conclusions that simple summation approach is too conservative and variance-covariance approach is overly optimistic, so it is suggested that copula approach is the future major trend for bank risk aggregation. Especially, t copula with degree of freedom between 1 and 10 is a good choice to capture tail dependence while Gaussian copula is not recommended. Besides, the proposed mixture copula consisting of t copula and Gumbel copula exhibits heavier right tail dependence than single t copula.
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