The lagged impact of a broad rise in interest rates will constrain global economic activity in the remainder of 2023 and in 2024, but there are few indications of systemic strain in debt markets that could pull the world economy into recession. In 2024 EIU forecasts that slowing growth in the US will be offset by stronger momentum in Europe as German industry normalises following energy-related disruption this year. Moderate stimulus in China will inject sufficient momentum behind its currently struggling economy to preserve growth. Emerging markets will benefit from reduced uncertainty that will come with the conclusion of global monetary tightening. We forecast that the global economy will expand by 2.3% (at market exchange-rates) in 2024, a rate unchanged from our estimate for 2023. The outlook improves in subsequent years (we forecast growth of 2.7% a year on average in 2025-28), assisted by productivity gains tied to artificial intelligence and increased public funding for investment in technology and the energy transition.