摘要 : This paper describes a deterministic Markovian computer model (HOLSIM) for simulating forest dynamics. The model predicts the long-term dynamics of hollow-bearing trees (which are important for wildlife) in a single-species (monot... 展开 This paper describes a deterministic Markovian computer model (HOLSIM) for simulating forest dynamics. The model predicts the long-term dynamics of hollow-bearing trees (which are important for wildlife) in a single-species (monotypic) forest standunder an array of different timber harvesting regimes over a time scale of centuries. It was tested with a number of different timber harvesting scenarios in the mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forests of Victoria, SE Australia, having been parameterized using published data for such forests. The model is, however, generic and can be parameterized for use in forest types with different life-history attributes and management regimes. Computer experiments give results that have far-reaching implicationsfor forest management and could not have easily been predicted without a model. In this case, when the mountain ash harvest rotation time is 100 yr or less, the simulation shows that a supply of trees with hollows cannot be ensured by only retaining trees which already have hollows. Secondly, when some retained trees are lost through logging-related mortality, the effect on the number of trees with hollows is exaggerated - for instance, if half of the retained trees are lost via logging-related mortality, it is not sufficient to double the number of trees retained in order to maintain the same number of hollow-bearing trees. HOLSIM is a planning tool for forest and wildlife managers which will assist in forecasting long-term stand conditions that result from particular forest management regimes. The ability to make predictions over several harvesting cycles is extremely important for examining the effects of harvesting strategies on the dynamics and structure of forest ecosystems, determining whethergiven management strategies will meet particular targets, anticipating the impacts of forestry operations on hollow-dependent fauna, and helping to integrate biodiversity conservation better within wood production forests. 收起