摘要 : TIGGE, the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble, is a World Weather Research Programme project to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts. This report discusses some prelim... 展开 TIGGE, the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble, is a World Weather Research Programme project to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts. This report discusses some preliminary results from predictability studies based on the ensemble data exchanged within TIGGE, and available at the TIGGE archive centres. In the first part of this work, the key characteristics of the eight ensemble systems available in the TIGGE database at the time of writing (December 2007) are compared, and the strengths and weaknesses of each system are highlighted. Then, issues related to the generation of multi-model/multi-analysis ensemble products are discussed, and some preliminary results on the potential value ofcombining different ensembles to generate medium-range products with a grand multi-model/multi-analysis global ensemble are presented. 收起