摘要 : Highly pathogenic avian influenza and in particular the H5N1 strain has resulted in the culling of millionsof birds and continues to pose a threat to poultry industries worldwide. The recent outbreak of H5N1 inthe UK highlights th... 展开 Highly pathogenic avian influenza and in particular the H5N1 strain has resulted in the culling of millionsof birds and continues to pose a threat to poultry industries worldwide. The recent outbreak of H5N1 inthe UK highlights the need for detailed assessment of the consequences of an incursion and of the efficacyof control strategies. Here, we present results from a model of H5N1 propagation within the British poultryindustry. We find that although the majority of randomly seeded incursions do not spread beyond the initialinfected premises, there is significant potential for widespread infection. The efficacy of the EuropeanUnion strategy for disease control is evaluated and our simulations emphasize the pivotal role of duckfarms in spreading H5N1. 收起