摘要 : The two-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble ( GCE) model is used to simulate two South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) convective periods [18-26 May (prior to and during the monsoon onset) and 2-11 June ( aft... 展开 The two-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble ( GCE) model is used to simulate two South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) convective periods [18-26 May (prior to and during the monsoon onset) and 2-11 June ( after the onset of the monsoon) 1998]. Observed large-scale advective tendencies for potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum are used as the main forcing in governing the GCE model in a semiprognostic manner. The June SCSMEX case has stronger forcing in both temperature and water vapor, stronger low-level vertical shear of the horizontal wind, and larger convective available potential energy (CAPE). The temporal variation of the model-simulated rainfall, time- and domain-averaged heating, and moisture budgets compares well to those diagnostically determined from soundings. However, the model results have a higher temporal variability. The model underestimates the rainfall by 17% to 20% compared to that based on soundings. The GCE model-simulated rainfall for June is in very good agreement with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), precipitation radar (PR), and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Overall, the model agrees better with observations for the June case rather than the May case. The model-simulated energy budgets indicate that the two largest terms for both cases are net condensation (heating/drying) and imposed large-scale forcing (cooling/moistening). These two terms are opposite in sign, however. The model results also show that there are more latent heat fluxes for the May case. However, more rainfall is simulated for the June case. Net radiation (solar heating and longwave cooling) are about 34% and 25%, respectively, of the net condensation (condensation minus evaporation) for the May and June cases. Sensible heat fluxes do not contribute to rainfall in either of the SCSMEX cases. Two types of organized convective systems, unicell (May case) and multicell (June case), are simulated by the model. They are determined by the observed mean U wind shear (unidirectional versus reverse shear profiles above midlevels). Several sensitivity tests are performed to examine the impact of the radiation, microphysics, and large-scale mean horizontal wind on the organization and intensity of the SCSMEX convective systems. [References: 59] 收起