摘要 : A number of measures have been introduced into Swedish forestry in order to satisfy demands on biodiversity and sustainability. Protection measures include set asides, areas with continuous cover forestry and retention trees on ha... 展开 A number of measures have been introduced into Swedish forestry in order to satisfy demands on biodiversity and sustainability. Protection measures include set asides, areas with continuous cover forestry and retention trees on harvesting sites, to name but a few. Most of these practices will have implications for the total wood supply of the Swedish forests. In 1998, the Swedish standard for forest certification according to the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) was approved. The standard adopts many detailed regulations regarding how forests should be managed. The aim of this study is to assess the likely effect of FSC certification on short- and long-term supply of roundwood in Sweden. A scenario, expressed as the distribution of the forest land base on production forests, areas with restrictions for management and reserves, is input into a simulation model in which forest owners are assumed to be guided by economic criteria when deciding on management. Four scenarios were created based on the data of the Swedish National Forest Inventory. For each scenario the short-term wood supply was assessed. Also, a number of long run simulations with different relative price levels are presented. The results indicate that full adoption of the FSC standard on the entire land base, compared with adherence only to the Forestry Act, could result in a substantial reduction in supply, or, conversely, could induce a price increase in case supplied quantities should be maintained at current levels. This is under the assumption that no compensating mechanisms, exogenous to the model, come into effect. Furthermore, a sustained price increase that would compensate for lost volumes today does not seem to prevail in the long run. In conclusion, the ongoing adaptation of Swedish forestry to the standards of the certification programs could have substantial effects on the timber supply and will probably influence the international competitiveness of the Swedish forest sector. Effects and tendencies like these should form integral parts of future analyses of wood balances and wood supply in a regional perspective.. 收起