摘要 : We consider forecasting from age-period-cohort models, as well as from the extended chain-ladder model. The parameters of these models are known only to be identified up to linear trends. Forecasts from such models may therefore d... 展开 We consider forecasting from age-period-cohort models, as well as from the extended chain-ladder model. The parameters of these models are known only to be identified up to linear trends. Forecasts from such models may therefore depend on arbitrary linear trends. A condition for invariant forecasts is proposed. A number of standard forecast models are analysed. 收起