摘要: Simulation can be a powerful tool for the analysis of complex processes and systems, and has been used as a method of research in many fields such as social phenomena, economic processes and human behaviour. However, using simulat... 展开 Simulation can be a powerful tool for the analysis of complex processes and systems, and has been used as a method of research in many fields such as social phenomena, economic processes and human behaviour. However, using simulation presents some difficulties, mainly relating to the ability to validate the output from any model of simulation. The validation of counter-terrorism simulations creates particular problems. It can be difficult to model the likely consequences of a terrorist incident; there are considerable technical challenges in simulating fragmentation and blast from Improvised Explosive Devices or dispersion models for biochemical hazards. It is also extremely difficult to anticipate potential future threats; terrorists and insurgents continually innovate in their modes of attack. In this paper several possible approaches to counter-terrorism simulation validation are discussed. It is argued that unless we can validate the many different models that are being developed by security agencies around the globe, then there is little prospect that these systems will make a significant contribution to public safety. 收起