摘要 : Montane birds are vulnerable to climate change. However, the mechanisms by which weather drives demographic processes in montane birds have seldom been investigated. We conducted a long-term study (2009-2019) on the Green-backed T... 展开 Montane birds are vulnerable to climate change. However, the mechanisms by which weather drives demographic processes in montane birds have seldom been investigated. We conducted a long-term study (2009-2019) on the Green-backed Tit (Parus monticolus), an insectivorous passerine, in the montane cloud forest of subtropical Taiwan. We explored the effects of weather variability on the productivity and survival of adult Green-backed Tits. Nest survival was negatively associated with seasonal rainfall during the breeding season (April-July) and was lower in early clutches than in late clutches. Higher typhoon-induced precipitation during the postbreeding period (July-September) was related to reduced adult survival, but neither summer temperature nor winter weather conditions were found to be related to adult bird survival. We developed a stochastic simulation model for Green-backed Tit population dynamics based on empirical data. We compared the simulated time-series and observed population growth rates (lambda) and found that 80% (8/10 yr) of the observed lambda fell within the 5th and 95th percentiles of the simulated data over the 10-yr period. Moreover, the simulated average (+/- standard deviation) of the geometric mean of lambda over 10 yr (1.05 +/- 0.07) was close to that observed from 2009 to 2019 (0.99), which provided confidence that the model effectively simulated the population growth rate of the Green-backed Tit. We conducted a sensitivity analysis for lambda and found that juvenile and adult survival influenced by typhoon-induced rainfall were the greatest contributors to the variance in the growth rate of the Green-backed Tit population. With the onset of intensified seasonal precipitation associated with global warming, the population growth and density of Green-backed Tits will decline substantially. Our results suggest that under scenarios of high emissions of greenhouse gas, this local population of Green-backed Tits will not persist in the near future. 收起