摘要: A model for the estimation of the risk of diversion of weapons-capable materials was developed. It represents both the threat of diversion and site vulnerability as a product of a small number of variables (two to eight), each of ... 展开 A model for the estimation of the risk of diversion of weapons-capable materials was developed. It represents both the threat of diversion and site vulnerability as a product of a small number of variables (two to eight), each of which can take on a small number (two to four) of qualitatively defined (but quantitatively implemented) values. The values of the overall threat and vulnerability variables are then converted to threat and vulnerability categories. The threat and vulnerability categories are used to define the likelihood of diversion, also defined categorically. The evaluator supplies an estimate of the consequences of a diversion, defined categorically, but with the categories based on the IAEA Attractiveness levels. Likelihood and Consequences categories are used to define the Risk, also defined categorically. The threat, vulnerability, and consequences input provided by the evaluator contains a representation of his/her uncertainty in each variable assignment which is propagated all the way through to the calculation of the Risk categories. 收起