摘要: The methodology has usually been applied to conceptual models for which careful empirical estimation has not been performed. Our report indicates that new progress in statistical-econometric methodology should help rectify this sh... 展开 The methodology has usually been applied to conceptual models for which careful empirical estimation has not been performed. Our report indicates that new progress in statistical-econometric methodology should help rectify this short¬coming. it should be emphasized, however, that carefully designed simulations of conceptual (as opposed to empirical models) can and should play a major role in the analysis of complex dynamic systems even when good empirical data are lacking. System dynamics provides one useful approach for such exercises. 收起